How much your state pension will be worth in 2024

Next year’s rise in the state pension will be determined by the triple-lock guarantee. Under this guarantee, the government has promised state pensions will increase by the highest of the following three figures:

• 2.5%
• September’s inflation rate
• earnings growth between May and July

September’s inflation rate

We don’t yet know September’s inflation rate. This will be published in October. July’s inflation rate was 6.8% and the Bank of England has predicted it will have fallen to around 5% by the end of the year.

This almost certainly means your state pension will rise by more than the guaranteed 2.5% minimum, so that’s good news. But could it be even higher than the rate of inflation? Let’s take a look at earnings growth.

Earnings growth for May to July

Again, we don’t yet have the figure for average wage growth for May to July. But the figure for April to June was 8.2%. According to the Office for National Statistics, this figure was skewed due to a one-off bonus paid to NHS staff in June. As the June figure will be included in the triple-lock calculation, this could be good news for your state pension.

So what does all this mean for your bank balance?

If you get the full state pension

The full state pension is currently £10,600.20 a year or £203.85 a week.

If earnings growth falls significantly next month and the inflation figure is used to work out how much you get, and presuming that drops to around 6% by September, you’ll be looking at about £11,236 a year or £216 a week.

If earnings growth remains at around the 8% mark between May to July, you should see your state pension rise to about £11,448 a year or £220 a week.

If you get the basic state pension

The basic state pension is currently £8,122.40 a year or £156.20 a week.

If this goes up by 6%, you’ll be looking at about £8,609 a year or £165 a week.

If it goes up by 8%, your state pension will rise to about £8,772 a year or £168 a week.